Commodities Update – A Comeback for Coal?

While some countries have curtailed their coal usage, others still utilize it as their primary energy source. China used 92.20 exajoules of coal in 2024 — approximately 3.15 billion metric tonnes. China was the largest coal user globally, accounting for over 50% of global coal usage. India, at 23 exajoules, was the only other country with double digit exajoule usage.

In line with the chart above, a majority of new coal plants have been opened in either China or India. From 2000 to 2025, China and India opened between 54% and 94% of all coal plants, respectively, with their share peaking in 2008.

With the current Iran war and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, more countries may begin pivoting to coal as oil and natural gas becomes increasingly more expensive to procure. Coal futures jumped once the strikes on Iran began, with API2 (Rotterdam) coal futures — the primary European coal benchmark — initially jumping over 20%. Since then, however, prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. 

Newcastle (NEWC) coal futures — the primary benchmark for the Asia-Pacific market — had similar movement, jumping 16%. However, unlike the API2 futures, Newcastle prices remained elevated, likely due to Asia’s pronounced reliance on coal compared to their European counterparts.

Stock performance tells a similar story. Shunhua — a Chinese company that specializes in coal production and distribution — had strong performance over the past year ended April 30, 2026, with a return of 82.92%. Meanwhile, Alliance Resource Partners — an American equivalent — had a rockier year, but still ended the time period with a positive return of 8.11%. 

The stark difference in performance for the two companies might stem from differing coal use in the two countries: China’s 92.20 exajoules was over 1,000% greater than the 7.9 exajoules the U.S. used in 2024.

 



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