Geopolitical Risk Index Surges to Five-Year High
- The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) rose to 597.5 on 3/2/2026. This was the highest reading over the period from 3/4/2021 to 3/2/2026.
Bitcoin’s Reaction to Escalation in the Middle East
- Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency that has been touted as a modern gold, fell on news that the U.S. and Israel had begun air strikes on Iran on 2/28/2026.
- Overall, the increased global tensions have had a minor impact on the price of this main cryptocurrency.
Gold and Bitcoin have Different Correlations with the GPR
- Bitcoin and the GPR had 60-day rolling correlation of -0.043 on 3/2/2026. The 120-day rolling correlation was lower at -0.252.
- Overall, these correlations between bitcoin and the GPR have been low throughout the period from 6/1/2021 to 3/2/2026.
- By comparison, gold had a slight positive 60-day and 120-day rolling correlation to GPR, with readings of 0.236 and 0.302, respectively.
Bitcoin and West Texas Intermediate
- The price of Bitcoin and WTI had a 60-day rolling correlation of -0.741 on 3/3/2026. This is likely due to the sharp increase in oil prices while Bitcoin’s price has stayed relatively flat.
- The 120-day rolling correlation between these two prices was -0.254.
Bitcoin and the Major Equity Indexes
- Recently, the correlation of Bitcoin to each of the three major U.S.-equity indexes has begun to take different paths.
- The 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq (NDX) was 0.736 on 3/3/2026. This was the strongest correlation of the three indexes.
- The 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) was the most negative, at -0.429.
- In terms of the 120-day rolling correlations, Bitcoin and the NDX had a reading of -0.161, while Bitcoin and the INDU had a reading of -0.777.
- For the S&P, the 60-day rolling correlation was 0.167 and the 120-day correlation was -0.586.
