A good sign that real upward rate pressure is going to manifest itself outside of TIPS and other direct means of measuring prices is that Used car prices for collectors are now starting to show a rebound in price. The Hagerty Market Index for Collector Cars (illustrated in the chart below) has risen for five consecutive months after a three-year unwind. Monterey just set an auction record: three-year-old Used cars cost 38% more than they did in 2019. The Used-car CPI sub-component has risen for two months running. All of that lands the day before an FOMC meeting that Kalshi prices at 87% for a hike.
Hagerty’s Market Index bottomed at 135 in September 2020; rose 52% to a 206 peak in December 2022 as the post-pandemic inflation ran through the hobby and then gave most of it back over 37 months, hitting a recent low of 172 in January 2026. A reading of 175.05 in July 2026 was the fifth consecutive monthly increase, per Hagerty’s own July 2026 report, which is where the Index was in July 2016.
The New-vehicle CPI sub-component is 22% above its 2019 average. The 48-month new-car loan rate is at 7.5% compared to 5.4% in 2019. The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles and parts has been in place since April 2025. Volume has not come back. Prices have.
iSeeCars’ August 11, 2026 study compared average prices of three-year-old Used cars sold in 2019 and 2026 across 11.4 million transactions. The average three-year-old car went from a price of $23,624 in 2019 to $32,651 in 2026, up $9,027 or 38.2%, while the share of three-year-old Used cars under $20,000 fell from 49% to 11%.
The other end of the same study is that only two of the ten smallest movers actually fell: the Tesla Model X (−17.0%, $75,554 to $62,689) and the Land Rover Discovery Sport (−2.4%). Against 38% for the average three-year-old car and 31% for the all-items CPI since 2019, a car that is flat in nominal terms has lost roughly a quarter of its real value.
So, the TLDR version is that the Hagerty Market Index for Collector Car Index has risen five straight months out of a 37-month unwind. Monterey set a record with the average lot up 67%, while three-year-old used cars cost 38% more than in 2019 with used-car CPI up two months running. Kalshi has the September 16, 2026 rate hike at an 87% probability and a funds-rate ceiling above 4% by December 2026 at two-in-three. That is just one of the markets being impacted outside of TIPS.