Inflation Roundup – Investors Remain on the Fence

Investors are back to pricing in a near 50% probability headline CPI can average above 2.5% YoY for the years ahead. Prices paid, delivery times, flatbed rates, and more have all rolled over since May, suggesting supply chain forces are finally abating. The onus is on the pace of shelter inflation and wages moving forward.

Content

    • Inflation Expectation Returns and Seasonality
    • The State of Market-Based Inflation Expectations
    • Stagflation?! Nah
    • Team Transitory Has Won the Battle, but Not the Inflation War
    • Rents Getting Spicy
    • Commodities and Yields Destined to Enter Trading Ranges
    • Consumer Spending Expectations Mildly Recede
    • Central Banks Primed to Get Less Passive

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