Is Florida’s Housing Market Flashing Warning Signs?

Florida’s Housing Inventory Continues to Grow…

  • As reported by Reventure*, Florida housing inventory exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the second year in a row in December 2025 with 160,877 homes for sale. The number of homes for sale has been on the rise since 2021.
  • For perspective, in December 2025, there were 115,575 more homes on the market compared to December 2021. Year-over-year, there were 7,825 more homes for sale in December 2025. 

*Reventure compiles data from Zillow, Realtor.com, the US Census Bureau and the BLS.

 

… Along with its Share of Foreclosures 

  • According to real estate analytics firm ATTOM, in 2025, Florida led the nation with the highest foreclosure rate of 0.44% for residential properties. Reasons cited for the increase included affordability pressure from insurance premiums, property taxes and general ownership costs. 

More Cracks Are Forming… 

  • Cancellations of Pending Home Sales in 5 Florida metro areas were above the national average of 16.3% in December 2025. Jacksonville, FL had the highest cancellation rate out of the Florida metros at 20.6% in December 2025, followed by Tampa, FL at 19.4% and Orlando, FL at 19.3%.

Florida is Not Alone… Home Purchase Cancellations Spike Across the U.S. 

  • According to Redfin’s analysis of MLS pending-sales data, approximately 40,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in the U.S. in December 2025. As mentioned above, this equated to 16.3% of homes under contract that canceled that month, above 14.9% in December 2024.  

5 Florida Metros Top the List for the Most Expensive HOA Fees Relative to Home Prices…

  • Out of 300 largest U.S. metro areas, Realtor.com compiled data for metros with HOAs that exceeded the national average. Five Florida metros topped the list with the most expensive HOA payments relative to home prices. 

 

Who is Buying in Florida? International Buyer Activity Trended Higher in 2025

  • International buyer activity in Florida rebounded in 2025 with an estimated 16,400 purchases compared to 10,900 in 2024, but remained below 2020 – 2023 levels. According to the National Association of Realtors, international buyers accounted for only a 5% share of existing home sales in Florida in 2025, compared to 3% in 2024.

First Time Home Buyers Surpassed Repeat Buyers in 2024

  • Home purchase originations in Florida have been on the decline since 2021 (at 405,000) down to 258,000 in 2024, which is the most recent data available. 
  • Examining the type of buyers by originations, in 2020 and 2021, 56% were repeat buyers and 44% were first time buyers. In 2023, repeat buyers declined to 52%, while first time buyers climbed to 48%.
  • In 2024, the types of buyers were roughly equal at 50% each, with first time buyers exceeding repeat buyers with 2,000 more home purchase originations. 

The Number of Retirees in Florida Continues to Grow

  • Finally, we examine the demographics in the Sunshine state. The number of retirees (as measured by age brackets of Florida residents) has continued to grow over the past decade: 2014 – 2024. The largest share of growth was in the age bracket 65 – 74 years olds, which grew by approximately 7,000 over the 10-year time period. 

 



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