U.S. Job Cuts Spike Outside of a Recession
- Utilizing data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the first chart illustrates the relationship between job cuts/layoff announcements (blue line); the VIX (red line) and recessions (shaded in gray).
- In Q1 2025, Challenger layoff announcements surged to 497,000, which was the highest number since 3Q 2020 at 498,000 during the height of the pandemic.
Financial Well-Being Index
- The next chart illustrates Deloitte’s Financial Well-Being Index which captures changes in how consumers feel about their current financial health and future financial security. Higher values suggest stronger financial well-being.
- The Financial Well-Being Index (blue line) has been on the decline since December 2024 (at 105.5%), at 99.9% in February 2025. U.S. Headline Inflation (red line) was at 2.8% in February 2025.
Mentions of Consumer Stress in the News
- The number of times “Consumer Stress” has been mentioned in the news (as measured by story count), peaked at 1,665 on 2/28/25 and hit a low of 493 mentions on 12/27/24.
- On 3/28/25, the number of mentions of Consumer Stress totaled 1,213.
Consumers Cut Back on Restaurant Spending
- Utilizing the latest data from OpenTable, the share of seated diners at restaurants declined 39.0% YoY on 3/30/25 (data is measured as a YoY percentage change).
