Supply of New Homes: The South Reigns Supreme
- The supply of new-home inventories in the South has continued to dominate compared to the other regions, accounting for 60% of total new-home sales in the U.S.
- The housing supply in the South has surged since the start of the pandemic driven by population growth.
The Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold in the U.S.
- The Median Sales Price for new houses sold in the U.S. declined to $387,400 in March 2026, down from a recent peak of $429,100 in December 2025 (data from FRED).
Probability of Buying a Home Hits Lowest Level in Over a Decade
- Utilizing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the average probability of buying a home (conditional on moving in the next 3 years), has been on the decline for the past three years, hitting a low of 52.9% in February 2026.
Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers Nears the Five Year Low
- The US – Housing Market Index, which measures the health of the real estate markets by tracking the interest and ability of potential buyers to purchase new homes, declined to 22 in April 2026, which was slightly above the 5-year low of 20 in July 2025.
New Home Inventory as a Share of Total Homes For Sale Trends Lower
- The share of new homes, expressed as a percentage of total homes for sale in the U.S., was 26.13% in March 2026.
A Weak Start for U.S. Homebuilders
- Checking in on the stock performance of large Homebuilders, YTD results have trended down across the board hurt by high interest rates, affordability issues and reduced demand.
- Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes fell to 34 in April 2026, according to the National Association on Home Builders / Wells Fargo Market Index.
Location Matters… How Much of Your Income Are You Willing to Spend on Housing?
- Based on March 2026 WalletHub data, the heatmap below illustrates housing costs as a percentage of median household income by state.
- Hawaii ranks #1 at 50.0%, followed by California at 43.0% and Massachusetts at 33.7%.
- Several West Coast states rank in the top five states due to strong demand and limited supply.
Redfin’s Hottest Neighborhoods of 2026: Seeking Suburbs for Affordability?
- Redfin defines the “hottest neighborhoods” by ranking U.S. zip codes in the 100 most populous metro areas by YoY growth.
- Six out of the 10 “hottest neighborhoods” are Midwest suburbs. Perhaps this is evidence of home buyers seeking to find more affordable housing options while staying close to larger metros for employment.
