An Update on U.S. Missile Inventories
- The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) estimated that the U.S. had 4,400 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) before the Iran War began. After weeks of strikes, the CSIS estimated that there were approximately 3,300 of these munitions in stock as of 4/21/2026.
- The number of Tomahawk missiles declined from a CSIS estimate of 3,100 to an estimate of approximately 2,100 after usage in the Iran War.
- As of 4/21/2026, CSIS estimated that the U.S. had approximately 1,085 Patriot missiles, down from a prewar estimate of 2,330.
- According to these estimates, the U.S. has approximately 33.33% of its prewar inventory of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles after fighting with Iran.
- Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), at 38.89%, and Patriot missiles, at 46.57%, were the only other munitions that had less than half of their prewar stock.
No Quick Fix for Replenishing Missiles
- Each of these seven munition types have a delivery timeline of at least 42 months, which means that it will be years before the U.S. is able to rebuild these inventories.
The Pentagon Hopes to Increase Its Spending on Missiles
- The $1.5 trillion budget proposal submitted by the Pentagon for FY 2027 included $76.96 billion on the procurement of missiles and missile defense systems. If passed, this would nearly triple the planned spending of $27.22 billion in FY 2026.
- In the most recent budget proposal, $46.37 billion of the missile procurement will be spent on munitions from Lockheed Martin. This would be nearly four times the amount budgeted to be spent on Lockheed Martin missiles in FY 2026.
The New Kids in the Defense Industry
- The Defiance Drone & Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI), which invests in drones, AI systems, and autonomous defense capabilities, has outperformed the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) on a year-to-date basis and since the start of the Iran War.
- As of 5/11/2026, JEDI had a year-to-date return of 18.64%, while ITA had a return of 3.62%.
- Since the war began on 2/27/2026, JEDI had a return of 6.33%, and ITA had fallen 11.22%.
