Supply Chain Problems Beginning to Fade?

Our aggregate of most-watched measures suggests there is some hope for the supply chain, however we are not out of the weeds yet. From auto prices to supplier delivery times, supply chain metrics remain close to the worst levels on record. On the whole, we’ve seen some modest improvement. Used cars, on the other hand, continue to get worse. Prices YoY for used vehicles are 5 standard deviations above average! In addition, global container rates and US trucking rates are not yet ready to mean revert.

Please see the ADS Supply Chain Dashboard below tracking supply deliveries, shipping rates, and consumers’ search activity for all things supply chain. We continue to lean heavily on searches from within major economies to gauge when the supply chain is finally getting back on course. Across the world, searches are finally starting to turn around. Searches for bottlenecks, shortages, and truck drivers have declined even as we enter the busy holiday season. If searches continue to fall, we will likely see the start of mean reversion in the supply chain, which on average takes 10-12 months according to historical events since 1950.

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