Please Stop the Debate Over the Fed’s Credibility

The Federal Reserve remains committed to their AIT framework and employment mandate. Official communications strongly suggest even mildly hawkish rhetoric will not arrive until December 2021 at the earliest.


US Manufacturing on Fire, Inventories Crashing

US manufacturing data continues to surpass expectations but sharply declining inventories look set to trigger a new wave of supply chain concerns. Global manufacturing momentum remains a tailwind for the US. 


The Rent Narrative May Get Messy

Falling rents and high vacancies in a small number of large cities contrast with rising rents in most of the US, creating confusion for investors and potential tenants alike. Would-be renters appear to be stepping back for now. 


Interest Rate Volatility Remains Extremely Subdued

Summary U.S. Treasury yields look poised to inch higher and higher under little enthusiasm or fanfare.  U.S. Treasuries have recommenced their slow grind to higher yields after a brief respite to end January. 10-year yield’s brief flirtation with dipping below 1.0% did little to entice buyers. We have argued the lower implied volatility remains along …