When it comes to “oil discoveries” and “the price of oil”, they may become increasingly irrelevant over time as refining capacity becomes the primary choke point.
Taking it all together, the consumer does not appear to be in “that bad” a spot. There are always reasons to be skeptical of the economy (credit tightening, employment growth...
At the end of the day, the SPR refill is going to take a long, long time. And it could be a narrative changer when – and if – that begins to happen.
With fears of an oncoming recession, it may be worthwhile to take a step back and reassess the implications of this data. Maybe – maybe – Middle America can save the coasts.