The Crypto market’s rally came to a halt with both Bitcoin and Ether trading lower than this time last week. At time of writing, BTC is trading at $43,000 and ETH at $3,200.
Total Returns and Seasonality, State of Inflation, Market-Based Expectations, Shelter Inflation, Search Trends
Announcements, Weighted Shadow Rates, Shadow Rate Forecasts, Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment, Mandate Priorities, Transitory Inflation, Passive Language, Agreement, and Uncertainty.
Supply chains around the world continue to face disruption both from remnants of the coronavirus and now the war in Ukraine. Since last week, we’ve begun to get a better picture of how supply chains faired in March. The greatest change has been in Consumer Inflation Expectations for a year out which have rocketed upward following higher energy prices. On a lighter note, container rates have continued to slide downward even as the port of Shanghai faces enormous congestion due to harsh lockdown measures.
Investor’s have once more turned to equities after a decent couple weeks in the stock market. Flows into SPY, QQQ, and the like made up around 55% of all inflows on a rolling 1-month basis. Elsewhere, USTs and TIPS continue to be a preferred destination for ETF investors.
Fixed Income and Corporate Sector Returns, Options-Adjusted Spreads, Rich/Cheap, Credit ETF Flows, and Issuance Recap
Long run returns show commodities have been a safe haven over the last year, but as of late we saw significant decline particularly in the metals sector. After the sector’s bull run prompted by the war and speculation over rising COVID-19 cases in China, we are seeing five day losses in all metal sub-indexes besides Tin and Zinc. Crude oil is our biggest loser as volatility in the oil market persists.