Supply Chain Disruptions Won’t Quit

Our aggregate of most-watched measures at least tangentially connected to the supply chain continues to paint a picture of dysfunction. Auto prices to supplier delivery times have punched to the worst levels since the pandemic (and really in history) at +3.4 standard deviations above average.


Central Bank Update – November 3, 2021

Announcements, Weighted Shadow Rates, Shadow Rate Forecasts, Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment, Mandate Priorities, Transitory Inflation, Passive Language, Agreement, and Uncertainty.


Commodities Update – November 2, 2021

Natural gas prices dropped after Russian gas began trickling into Europe. OPEC+ meets this Thursday, pump prices are expected to fall by December.


Investor Flows – Risk-On, but of the Inflation and Large Cap Variety

Investors have redirected flows into large caps after favoring cyclicals and small caps for the majority of October. Large caps reaped a sizable $31.2 billion over the past month or 48.3% of all in-flows. Inflation protection remains the most enduring theme, while investment grade corporates and sovereigns struggle to gain interest.