The dollar rallied on the Iran war—safe-haven flows, oil spike, and inflation repricing. DXY ran from 96.22 to just under 100. That countertrend move aligned with the weekly DeMark setup we were watching. As the war continues, the dollar is sitting right at the resistance level that determines whether the secular downtrend resumes or not. Our view is the same as last time—lower.
The dollar is up against everything: Aussie Dollar +0.31%, Swiss Franc +0.21%, Euro +0.20%. Then it falls off—Sterling at 0.11%, Japanese Yen at 0.07%, CAD at 0.05%.
DXY peaked above 103 in April 2025. Spent a year bleeding lower. Hit 96.22 in February. Bounced on Iran. Now sitting at 99.94.
I think this is a lower high: 103 to 100. The structure is clear—the dollar rallied into resistance and stalled at exactly the level we flagged last time. If it fails here and rolls over, the next move targets 96 again and probably lower. The secular forces haven’t changed: EM earnings growing 29% versus 14% for the U.S., the Fed still expected to cut, European defense spending pulling capital out of the U.S., and an administration that openly wants a weaker dollar. The Iran rally was the countertrend move—not the start of something new.
The technicals are clear here—the 100 area on the bottom chart is weekly TDST. The DeMark downside exhaustion played out in an interesting way, but I don’t see this rolling over meaningfully until oil calms down. As it stands, oil is still extremely volatile, and the dollar is trading off its day-to-day rate of change. I still affirm my higher-time-frame belief in a lower dollar and lower oil once things resolve.
