China Bumps Up Against Their Aluminum Production Cap
- In 2017, the Chinese Government instituted an annual production cap of 45 million tons on its aluminum industry. According to data from Bloomberg, China will produce approximately 44 million tons of aluminum in 2025.
- The rest of the world will produce 30 million tons of aluminum in 2025.
- If current trends hold, China is likely to hit its production cap in 2025, meaning that the rest of the world will need to increase supply to meet global aluminum demand.
Examining Aluminum Production by Country for 2024
- The U.S. Geological Survey reported that China was responsible for 60.04% of global aluminum production in 2024.
- India and Russia had the 2nd- and 3rd-largest shares of aluminum production, at 5.86% and 5.31% respectively.
- The U.S. produced a measly 0.94% of global aluminum in 2024.
Aluminum Prices
- As of 10/30/2025, the three-month rolling foward price of aluminum was $2,863.50 per metric ton. This is above the 50-day moving average of $2,705.47.
U.S Imports of Refined Copper
- The U.S. has averaged importing approximately 48,200 tons of refined copper per month for the time period from January 2015 to October 2025.
- The three-month rolling average of these imports have been above the average for the time period for the 16 consectutive months. For October 2025, the three-month rolling average of refined copper imports was approximately 81,100 tons.
- In June 2025, the U.S. Secratary of Commerce Howard Lutnick recommended that the U.S. begin instituting a tariff of 15% on refined copper by 2027 before raising it to 30% in 2028.
Difference between U.S. Refined Production and Imports
- The difference between U.S. copper refinement production and U.S. refined copper imports was approximately -24,080 tons for August 2025. This difference has been negative for six consecutive months including August.
Copper Prices
- As of 10/30/2025, the three-month rolling foward price of copper was $10,917 per metric ton. This is above the 50-day moving average of $10,327.68.
- The price of copper closed at an all-time high of $11,183.50 per metric ton on 10/29/2025.
