With the football season officially underway, we examine the increasing size of the sports prediction markets.
On 9/10/2025, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments between Kalshi and the State of New Jersey. The two parties are in conflict about whether states have the right to regulate Kalshi’s sports prediction markets.
A Spike in Google Searches for Sports Prediction Markets
- Utilizing Google Search Trends, we examine the interest level of topics related to sports prediction markets. Google Search Trends measures the relative search interest in topics, with 100 demonstrating maximum relative interest.
- For the week of 9/7/2025, the rolling three-month average of the year-over-year change in search interest for “prediction markets” was 41.42. Similarly, the rolling three-month average of the year-over-year change in search interest for “sports prediction markets” was 35.50.
Five of the Seven Largest Series on Kalshi are Related to Sports
- Kalshi, one of the largest prediction markets in the U.S., began offering markets that allow users to predict outcomes for sporting events in early 2025. These markets are currently allowed in states without legalized gambling.
- Based on total series volume, which tracks the money placed on different categories, five of the seven series with the most volume were sports related.
- NCAA Men’s College Basketball had a volume of approximately $412.40 million, second to only the volume on the 2024 Presidential Election.
- The NFL and College Football series, with volumes of $279.31 million and $265.13 million, will likely climb this list as football season continues.
Robinhood Enters the Sports Prediction Market
- In August, retail trading platform Robinhood, which has year-to-date returns of 215.25% as of 9/10/2025, announced that it would begin to offer prediction market for pro and college football.
- With their users seeming to have an unlimited appetite for risk, Robinhood also announced on 9/10/2025 that it would offer the ability to enter short positions.
- Robinhood’s revenue is estimated to hit $4.97 billion by 2026.
Sports Betting Market Projected to Continue Growth
- The U.S. sports betting market is projected to grow by approximately 11% per year and hit $188.72 billion by 2030.
- For 2025, the sports betting industry is expected to have a 19% year-over-year growth in earnings.
Bloomberg Sports Index Outperforms S&P 500
- The Bloomberg Sports Aggregate Equal Weight Index has year-to-date returns of 30.07% as of 9/11/2025, compared to returns of 12.93% for the S&P 500.
- This index holds a wide range of companies that have revenues tied to sports.
